My research covers areas of public economics and labour economics. All of it is applied, using large micro-datasets of individuals or households, and most is about policy.

You can find links to all of my work in one of two places: there is a complete list of my work after 2011 at my page at the University of Essex. For older stuff, you can use my page at the Institute for Fiscal Studies.  My ResearchGate page and my Google scholar page span both eras, but they are not guaranteed to be complete.

Current research and recent working papers

“Household income volatility in the UK, 2009-2017”, ISER WP 2019-07 (with S. Avram, M. Brewer, P. Fisher, L. Fumagalli)

“Top incomes in the UK: analysis of the 2015-16 Survey of Personal Incomes”, ISER WP 2019-06 (with C. Samano Robles)

“What do we really know about the employment effects of the UK’s National Minimum Wage?”, IZA DP 12369 (with T. Crossley and F. Zilio)

“The return to work and how it is taxed: a dynamic perspective”, IFS WP 18/27 (with M. Costa Dias and J. Shaw)

“Free Childcare and Parents’ Labour Supply: Is More Better?”, IZA DP 10415  (with S. Cattan, C. Crawford and B.Rabe)

“Lone Parents, Time-Limited In-Work Credits and the Dynamics of Work and Welfare”, IZA DP 10414 (with J. Cribb)

“Understanding Society Innovation Panel Wave 9: results from methodological experiments” (with various authors), Understanding Society WP 2017-07.

Published papers (mostly open access)

(2020) “A method for decomposing the impact of reforms on the long-run income distribution, with an application to universal credit”, Economics Letters, Volume 192 (with R. Joyce, T. Waters, J. Woods), doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109230.

(2019) “In‐Work Credits in the UK and the US. Fiscal Studies”, 40: 519-560 (with H. Hoynes). doi:10.1111/1475-5890.12207

(2019) “The curious incidence of rent subsidies: Evidence of heterogeneity from administrative data”, Journal of Urban Economics, Volume 114 (with J. Browne, C. Emmerson, A. Hood, R. Joyce), 10.1016/j.jue.2019.103198.

(2018) “Can’t Work or Won’t Work: Quasi-Experimental Evidence on Work Search Requirements for Single Parents”, Labour Economics, 51, pp63-85, doi: 10.1016/j.labeco.2017.10.002  (with S. Avram and A. Salvatori).

(2018) “Inference in Difference-in-Differences Revisited”, Journal of Econometric Methods, 7(1), pp (earlier draft available as IZA DP 7742) (with T.Crossley and R. Joyce) , doi: 10.1515/jem-2017-0005

(2018) “How Taxes and Welfare Benefits Distort Work Incentives: a Lifecycle Perspective”, Fiscal Studies, 39(1), pp5-38 (with J.Shaw), 10.1111/j.1475-5890.2017.12150.

(2017) “Why are households that report the lowest incomes so well-off?”, Economic Journal, 127, F24-F29 (with B.Etheridge and C.O’Dea), doi: 10.1111/ecoj.12334

(2016) “Accounting for changes in income inequality: Decomposition analyses for the UK, 1978-2008”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (with L. Wren-Lewis), doi: 10.1111/obes.12113.

(2013) “The short- and medium-term impacts of the recession on the UK income distribution”, Fiscal Studies, 34(2), 179-201 (with  Browne, J., Hood, A., Joyce, R. & Sibieta, L.), doi: 10.1111/j.1475-5890.2013.12000.x

(2012) “Universal Credit: A Preliminary Analysis of Its Impact on Incomes and Work Incentives”, Fiscal Studies, 33, (with Browne, J. and Jin, W.),  doi:10.1111/j.1475-5890.2012.00152.x

(2012) “Does welfare reform affect fertility? Evidence from the UK”, Journal of Population Economics, 25(1), pp245-266. (with Ratcliffe, A. and Smith, S.), doi: 10.1007/s00148-010-0332-x

(2010) “Means-testing and tax rates on earnings” in Dimensions of Tax Design: the Mirrlees Review, OUP (with A. Shephard & E. Saez), here.

(2008), “Job Changes and Hours Changes: Understanding the Path of Labor Supply Adjustment”, Journal of Labor Economics, 26(3), pp. 421-453 (with R. Blundell and M. Francesconi), doi: 10.1086/588245.

(2006) “Did working families’ tax credit work? The impact of in-work support on labour supply in Great Britain” (with A.  Duncan, A. Shephard & M. Suárez), Labour Economics¸ December 2006, 13(6), 699-720, doi: 10.1016/j.labeco.2005.11.002

(2003) “What really happened to child poverty in the UK under Labour’s first term?” (with T. Clark & A. Goodman), Economic Journal, 113 (June), doi: 10.1111/1468-0297.00133

(2002) “Social security in the UK under New Labour: what did the Third Way mean for welfare reform?” Fiscal Studies, 23, doi:10.1111/j.1475-5890.2002.tb00071.x

(2001) “Comparing in-work benefits and the reward to work for families with children in the US and the UK”. Fiscal Studies, 22. doi:10.1111/j.1475-5890.2001.tb00034.x